Apple: Master of Timing
One Step Behind Two Steps Ahead
“Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.” - Howard Marks, Investor and Author
Timing is everything. In life, love, and especially business. Apple has proven itself to be the master of timing.
Apple wasn’t the first to make an mp3 player, that was Saehan Information Systems, a small Korean firm whose name has largely been lost to history. Nor was Apple the first to make a smartphone, that honor goes to IBM, an aging tech behemoth who missed its shot.
In both cases the idea itself was gold, but ahead of its time. When the MPMan F10 was released in 1998 it offered a measly 32MB of storage, which translated to about 10 songs in your pocket. Less than three years later the iPod came out with a 5GB hard drive and the promise of a 1000 songs in your pocket.
Apple has demonstrated the competitive advantage of being a fast follower. I think it’s fair to say Apple’s reputation for technological wizardry is largely due to their impeccable sense of timing. Apple’s goal is not to be the first to market. Apple stays one step behind to stay two steps ahead. Google Glass is an easy example of what it looks like to arrive too early. The technology wasn’t ready. The market wasn’t ready. People just weren’t ready.
As a second mover Apple gets to learn from the mistakes of its competitors. Does that mean they’re just sitting back and twiddling their thumbs while everyone else rushes half baked ideas to market? Absolutely not. They’re hiring the best people and equipping them with the resources needed to create products that will capture the market and oftentimes create new markets, as was the case with iTunes and the App store.
Take a new product category like autonomous vehicles for example. There’s been a lot of chatter about the Apple Car and we know they have something in the works. If and when it’ll ever come to market is hard to say. But you can bet Apple won’t be first.
The science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke famously said, “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Getting the timing right is how Apple produces magic. 10 songs in your pocket? Not magic. 1000 songs in your pocket? Now that’s magic!
And if you asked Apple how they managed this feat their answer would be “It just works”. A good magician never reveals their secrets. Besides, Apple doesn’t sell hardware or tech specs. It sells Wonder, which Diller, Shedroff, and Rhea define as “Awe in the presence of a creation beyond one’s understanding.” in their seminal book Making Meaning.
The question now is how long can Apple keep up the act? They’re still raking in money hand over fist, but they haven’t delivered a truly game changing product in a while. Incremental improvements to the camera on the iPhone hardly qualify as magic. Could it be that Apple has lost its touch?
This may not be immediately obvious, but I think Disney will be among Apple’s biggest competitors in the coming decades. The reason being that Disney is one of the few companies that can go toe to toe with Apple in the Wonder business. Disney understands on a very deep level how to create meaningful customer experiences. It’s called The Happiest Place on Earth for a reason and I’d wager Disney’s customer base is just as loyal if not more so than Apple’s.
One of Disney’s main advantages is that it has become the king of content. And content IS king. At the end of the day an iPhone can be substituted or replaced, but the stories and characters we love from the Star Wars or Marvel universe are irreplaceable.
For Disney to truly challenge Apple it will need to start thinking of itself as a technology company and invest more heavily in R&D. Disney’s advanced robotics capabilities have always been on full display in its parks. But are they thinking too small? How might they leverage those capabilities more broadly?
Disney might be the only company I’d trust to create a friendly robot butler that I’d actually want in my house. I sure as hell don’t want Boston Dynamics’ nightmare inducing robo-dog making me breakfast or picking up my socks. Whether Disney and Apple would collaborate on a project like that or go head to head the way they have with their competing streaming services is difficult to say.
